Friday, December 31, 2010

Update 12/31/10

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Not much happened in the market between Christmas and New Year's, but I did make a few adjustments to my diagonal positions.

NOV Bullish Diagonal
NOV dropped the first two days of the week so I covered the long by selling 4 Feb 70 calls for $1.39. I could have used Jan options but there was not a Jan strike in the delta range I was looking at, so I went out to Feb instead. After the two down days, NOV went up 3 days in a row and I uncovered the long by buying back the 4 Feb 70 calls for $2.17 on Friday. Although I lost money on the short portion of the trade, I made money overall with NOV going up on the week as a diagonal is still a bullish position when "covered", just not as bullish as the long call when I am "uncovered". Overall profit is around 305%.

FCX Bullish Diagonal
FCX has been alternating up days then down days the last two weeks, so there has not been any adjustments to the current uncovered position. FCX was up on the week and overall profit now stands at 220%.


XLE Bullish Diagonal
XLE continued its uptrend last week to the point that on Monday I was able to roll the longs up and out for a slight debit. The 3 Mar 62 calls were sold and 3 Jun 63 calls were bought for a 0.45 debit. Profit overall on XLE is now 259%.


CTRP Bearish Diagonal
No adjustments were made to the CTRP position last week and CTRP was down on the week. Overall there is a loss on the position of 20%.

Monday, December 27, 2010

Update 12/24/10

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I did make a few adjustments last week despite the low volume due to the holidays.

NOV Bullish Diagonal
No adjustments were made to the NOV position and overall profit is now +285%.

FCX Bullish Diagonal
I uncovered FCX on Wednesday by buying the Jan 11 119 Calls for 3.70. Overall profit is now +192%.

XLE Bullish Diagonal
On Tuesday I uncovered XLE by buying back the Jan 11 68 calls for 0.91. Overall profit is now +222%.

CTRP Bearish Diagonal
I covered CTRP on Tuesday by selling 2 Jan 11 40 Puts for 1.10. Overall the position is down 26%.

Friday, December 17, 2010

Update 12/17/10

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The markets were slightly up this week although I had some whipsaw action on my diagonals which were down 1%. I have found that you have to be able to handle large swings of p/l with diagonals as the profit can swing widely from day to day.

NOV Bullish Diagonal
I made one trade on NOV this week uncovering the long Friday afternoon. The fill was $1.70 for buying back the 4 Jan 11 65 calls. Overall the profit stands at +223% on NOV.


FCX Bullish Diagonal
I covered FCX Wednesday afternoon by selling 2 Jan 11 120 Calls for $2.50. FCX has moved up since then closing at 113.70 today and profit on the diagonal is 160%. There was a dividend this week on FCX that lowered my strikes by $1.00, making me now hold the 119 and 99 strikes instead of 120 and 100.


XLE Bullish Diagonal
There were no trades on XLE this week and the position is still covered, i.e. a diagonal. Profit was up some finishing the week at +180% overall.


CTRP Bearish Diagonal
CTRP had a wild week this week, especially on Tuesday when it dropped about 15%. 



Unfortunately the position was covered at that point so I did not get full advantage of the drop. I uncovered CTRP Tuesday afternoon and it has moved up since then closing today at 40.74. I have considered closing the position but for now it is still open and is showing a loss of 16%.


Friday, December 10, 2010

Update 12/10/10

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Overall it was a flat week but I did make some adjustments during the week.

NOV Bullish Diagonal
After a couple of down days I covered NOV on Wednesday by selling 4 Jan 11 65 Calls for 1.58. The position was down a little this week with profit now standing at 200%.


FCX Bullish Diagonal
FCX had a good week and ended up about 4 points. There were no adjustments made to this position and the overall profit is 144%.


XLE Bullish Diagonal
XLE was flat this week but I did cover the long position after 2 down days. On Wednesday, I sold 3 Jan 11 68 calls for 0.77. Current profit stands at 168%.


CTRP Bearish Diagonal
I am not having much luck with bearish positions. CTRP was up about a point this week and on Tuesday I rolled the short puts up from the 40 strike to the 42.5 strike for 0.60 credit. The position is down 9 % overall.


Monday, December 6, 2010

Why I Don't Trade Stocks

Most of my friends that are in the market trade stocks, not options. The popular misconception is that options are very risky. My belief is just the opposite, however, I believe stocks are more risky. Now that I trade options directionally, I think it is easier to show a direct comparison between the two trades, since stocks are always traded directionally.

On November 8, 2010, I want to buy DECK stock. The stock has been moving steadily up and my teenage daughter tells me all the kids want UGG boots (made by Deckers Outdoor Corp) for Christmas. Here is the daily chart for DECK:

I can purchase 200 shares of DECK at 62.67, for a cost of $12,534. The plan is to get out if there is a 10% drop in the stock, which would be at a price of 56, giving a loss of $1334. For the options trade, there are a couple of ways to do it. I could either use the same amount of capital as the stock trade ($12,534), or I could use the same amount of risk as the stock trade ($1334). These calculations would direct me to a different number of contracts to use since an options risk graph is not linear like a stock risk graph. I prefer to think in terms of controlling risk, so I will use the second option, and set up a trade with the same amount of risk at a 10% drop in stock price. For the options trade I will start with a diagonal spread, which is like a covered call but has a long call substituted for the stock. So on November 8 I buy the Mar 2011 55 call for 11.17 and sell the Dec 66.67 call for 1.92 to create my diagonal. To give me close to the same risk as the stock trade, I will do this with 4 contracts which makes my total cost $3700, about 30% of cost of the stock trade. Here is the first advantage of options over stocks: If DECK were to drop to 0 the next day, the stock trade loss would be over 3 times that of the option trade loss.

After a couple of days, DECK moves up, and I decide to adjust the options trade by buying back the short option I sold earlier. My plan is to only have a long call when the stock is running up, and "cover" the long call by selling a short call when the stock pulls back. The short call gives me some downside protection. On November 10 I buy back the short call for $1.35. There is not a similar corresponding trade I could make to the long stock position, so I continue to hold the 200 shares bought at 62.27.

For the next 6 days DECK trades lower, but never for 2 consecutive days, so I continue to hold the long call option purchased for 11.17.


On November 16 DECK starts moving up. It reaches 68 on November 22

and has risen enough that I can make an adjustment to my option position to capture some profit but still keep my position open. This is done by "rolling" my long call up a strike from 55 to 60 and also adding 2 additional options giving me a total of 6. I sell the 4 Mar 2011 55 Long calls for $15.10 and buy 6 Mar 2011 60 Long calls for $11.55. Normally I try to make this adjustment for a small credit but in this case the trade was a small debit, but I will try to do the next adjustment for a credit to balance this one out. So my options position now has 6 long calls instead of 4 that I started with for nearly the same risk I originally started with. This is the second advantage of options over a stock trade: When a trade is working I can make adjustments that increase the reward potential without increasing the risk. The only similar thing I could so with a stock position is to sell off some of the shares which decreases my risk, but also decreases my profit potential going forward.

DECK continues moving higher going up 9 straight days so on November 30

 I am able to make another adjustment to the option position to capture more profits. I sell the 6 Mar 2011 60 Long calls for 19.28667 (these are actual trade prices, by the way, not paper trades), and I buy 8 Mar 2011 70 Long calls for 12.215.

DECK has continued to move up in December and closes today at 83.11.

DECK has been perfect for a long stock trade and the position is up 20.34 from the original purchase, a gain of 32% or $4088.

However, the stock gains are not even close to what the diagonal option position has gained.

Profit is currently at $10,030 on an original debit of $3700 or 271% profit for the option trade. Also with the credits I received on the adjustments the current debit is LOWER than the original debit and is $3330. This illustrates the third (main) advantage of options over stocks: The leverage of options allows for much larger gains than a stock position would give with lower risk.

Friday, December 3, 2010

Update 12/3/10

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This week started slow but ended up strongly helping my bullish diagonal positions.

NOV Bullish Diagonal
After NOV moved down a couple of days I sold 4 Jan 11 65 calls for 1.75. I ended up getting whipsawed a little and bought the calls back today for 2.27. Overall the position is up 226%.


FCX Bullish Diagonal
Today I made an adjustment to the FCX position. I rolled the longs calls up and out and added an additional contract. I sold the Feb 90 call for 20.93 and bought 2 May 100 calls for 16.79 each. Normally I want to do this for a credit but because I only had 1 initial contract, I had to add a debit to the trade to double the number of contracts. Eventually when I roll again I will try to lower the basis back to what I started with by getting a credit. Overall the position is up 99%.


XLE Bullish Diagonal
XLE continued its move up this week and yesterday I was able to roll the call up and add a contract for a net credit. I sold 2 Mar 58 for 8.255 and bought 3 Mar 62 for 5.22 or a 0.85 net credit. Overall profit is now 179%.



LVS Bullish Diagonal
LVS traded down sharply on Thursday after some bad news. My stop was hit and I closed the position by selling the 3 Mar 45 calls for 7.60. Final profit on the trade was 88%.

CTRP Bearish Diagonal
I opened a new bearish diagonal in CTrip.com International today. I bought 2 Mar 50 Puts and sold 2 Jan 40 puts for 7.00 net debit. Currently the position has a loss of 3%.


Monday, November 29, 2010

Update 11/26/10

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NOV Bullish Diagonal
There were no adjustments made to the NOV position this week, or any other position for that matter, with the Thanksgiving holiday. NOV closed the week at 61.52 and shows an overall profit of 210%.


FCX Bullish Diagonal
FCX closed the week at 97.93 and shows an overall profit of 25%.


XLE Bullish Diagonal
XLE closed the week at 62.41 and has an 81% profit.


LVS Bullish Diagonal
LVS closed at an even 50 dollars and has a 139% overall profit.

Friday, November 19, 2010

Weekly Update 11/19/10

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The market was down early this week but recovered Thursday and Friday giving my bullish diagonals a 4% gain on the week.

NOV Bullish Diagonal
On 3 of the 5 trading days this week I made trades in NOV. On Monday, I covered the long by selling 3 Dec 60 calls after NOV was down 2 days in a row. When NOV recovered on Thursday, I rolled the longs up and out to the May 55 strike and also rolled the short up to the 65 strike. I was also able to increase the number of shares to 4 with these trades. Today I uncovered NOV by buying back the short calls. So the current position is 4 long May 55 calls with overall profit at 212%.



FCX Bullish Diagonal
 I also made 3 trades in FCX this week. On Monday I covered the long by selling the Dec 110 long. After another move down Tuesday I rolled the short down to the 105 strike. Then today I uncovered the long by buying back the short 105 call. Overall profit is 52%. 


XLE Bullish Diagonal
XLE followed the same pattern as FCX. Covered on Monday, rolled down on Tuesday, and uncovered today. Overall profit is 110%.



LVS Bullish Diagonal
LVS entered the week covered and on Wednesday I rolled the short down from 55 to the 50 strike. Then today I uncovered and bought back the short. Overall profit stands at 129%.




Friday, November 12, 2010

Weekly Update 11/12/10

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This week was good until today, when the market went down against all of my bullish diagonals. I am looking at some bearish positions also, but haven't found a good entry point yet. This week the accounts are down 4% giving back a little of the gains from the last couple of weeks.

RVBD PCCRC
I wanted to free up some cash for new positions this week, so I ended up closing all of my PCCRCs. I plan to stick to diagonals for a while, but I could return to the PCCRC trade in the future. I closed the RVBD position on Thursday, and the final tally was a gain of 25% of the initial debit.

COH PCCRC
I also closed COH on Thursday and the overall profit on the position was 5%.

SOHU PCCRC
SOHU was closed on Monday netting 11% profit.

NOV Bullish Diagonal
No adjustments were made to the NOV diagonal this week, although I will be covering the long Monday if NOV is down again. Despite NOV closing today down 3% to 57.65, overall the position is up 178%.


FCX Bullish Diagonal
FCX is still uncovered with no adjustments this week. FCX will also be covered Monday if it is down again. Overall P/L is close to where it ended last week, +68%.


XLE Bullish Diagonal
XLE also had no adjustments this week and ended today at 62.87. It will also be covered Monday if down again. Overall profit is currently 108%.


LVS Bullish Diagonal
On Wednesday I covered LVS after 2 down days in a row by selling 3 Dec 55 Calls for 1.75. Today LVS closed at 48.52 and the total profit is 131%.


Friday, November 5, 2010

Weekly Update 11/5/10

Another good week this week with an overall gain of 18%. I may need to rename this blog from VEGA Trading to Diagonal Trading, as the diagonals are smoking the PCCRCs, and I am becoming sold on the diagonals being the best way to grow an account. My PCCRCs have a ROI of 6.2% this year while the diagonals have a ROI of 84% while requiring about 1/3 the debit of the average PCCRC.

PCCRCs 
Since I made no adjustments or new PCCRC trades this week, I will not list any individual risk graphs. Next Friday will be adjustment determination day for the PCCRCs.  

RVBD had a small gain on the week with overall profit now at 21% and RVBD at 59.28.

COH was stagnant still showing a 4% profit while closing at 52.92.

SOHU closed at 74.05 and also shows a gain of 4%.

NOV Bullish Diagonal
I still have uncovered longs in NOV although I did take some delta profits this week by rolling from the 47 to 50 strike. NOV closed the week at 58.77 and total profit stands at 204%. No, that number is not annualized, which would be ~ 2100%. 



FCX Bullish Diagonal
FCX moved up and I rolled the long call out to Feb and up to the 90 strike. FCX closed the week at 104.84 and profit is now 71%.


XLE Bullish Diagonal
XLE also moved up this week causing me to uncover the longs by buying back the shorts on Tuesday. I also rolled the longs out to Mar and up to the 58 strike. I am trying to position my longs 4-6 months out right now which is Feb, Mar, or Apr expiration months. XLE closed the week at 62.31 and the position is up 88%.


PNC Bearish Diagonal
PNC traded up the last three days of this week to the point where I felt the bearish pattern was broken. I closed the position out today for a 46% loss.

LVS Bullish Diagonal
LVS chugged higher again this week and I was able to roll the long calls up from the 40 to 45 strike. LVS closed today at 51.98 and is showing a profit of 186%.


Friday, October 29, 2010

Weekly Update 10/29/10

This was a good week of trading with my account values up 6% on the week. I opened new PCCRCs in SOHU and COH and made several adjustment to the diagonal trades.

RVBD PCCRC
On Monday I captured some delta profits on RVBD by rolling 2 of the long calls from the 55 to 60 strike. RVBD ended up higher on the week closing at 57.59. Overall profit on the position stands at 19% despite a 4% loss today.


COH PCCRC
COH appeared on the screener Tuesday and I opened a new PCCRC at the 50 strike. COH closed dead on 50 today and despite IV dropping a lot the position currently is showing a 4% profit.


SOHU PCCRC
I also opened a PCCRC in SOHU on Tuesday. It reported earnings on Monday but did not show up on the screener because average volume is a little less than 1M. The parameters still looked good on Tuesday so I opened a new position at the 75 strike. The stock is down about 1/2 point from when I made the trade but there is still a 2% profit.


NOV Bullish Diagonal
NOV reported earnings on Tuesday and the stock jumped 4 points. I rolled the longs up and out to the Feb 47 strike and I also rolled the shorts up and out to Dec 55. On Wednesday I uncovered the long call by buying back the short after 2 up days in NOV. NOV closed the week at 53.76 and current overall profit is 84%.


FCX Bullish Diagonal
On Tuesday I uncovered the long on FCX after 2 up days. It has went down 3+ points since then and now profit stands at 2%.


XLE Bullish Diagonal
XLE dropped on Wednesday and Thursday so I sold two calls to cover the 2 longs. Since there was not an option with the delta I was looking for, I sold 2 different strikes, the 60 and 61. XLE moved up slightly today to 59.24 and profit on the position stands at 19%.


PNC Bearish Diagonal
PNC has been more bullish than bearish lately, but it did go down on Wednesday and Thursday so I bought back the short. PNC was back up again today and closed at 53.90. There is a loss overall on the position of 8%.


LVS Bullish Diagonal
LVS reported earnings Wednesday night and gapped higher Thursday. I rolled the longs up and out to Mar 40 while adding a contract and uncovered the longs by buying back the shorts after the 2 up days. LVS ended the week at 45.88 and shows a profit of 43%.


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